Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

512
FXUS63 KICT 301948
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
248 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Possible frost/freeze for parts of central Kansas late
tonight/early Monday morning

- Very strong south winds and severe weather likely on Tuesday

- Very high fire danger is likely for central and south central
Kansas Tuesday afternoon

- Additional rounds of showers/storms Thursday night-Saturday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Surface high pressure will build southward over the region for
tonight with colder temperatures expected, however some mid to high
level clouds streaming overhead could prevent things from radiating
out completely over central Kansas. If some decent breaks in the
clouds happen then some locations in central Kansas will experience
frost with temperatures around or slightly below freezing. Cooler
below normal temperatures will continue on Monday along with lighter
winds.

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows next upper level wave
rotating over the eastern Pacific off the coastline of
Oregon/Washington, along with a very strong jetstream nosing into
California. This weather system and associated powerful jetstream
will move onshore on Monday and continue to migrate eastward carving
out an upper trough over the Rockies. This will induce strong
surface cyclogenesis and increasing south winds for Tuesday into
Tuesday night over Kansas. Confidence is fairly high that south wind
speeds will surpass wind advisory levels on Tuesday for much of
the area, especially given high model probabilities of 850mb
wind speeds reaching 50kts during the afternoon/early evening.
This combined with deeper mixing of the low levels would allow
those higher wind speeds to be transported to the surface.
Meanwhile the focus will shift towards arrival time of richer
low level moisture streaming northward, and when warm capping
700mb temperatures/upper forcing from shortwave shifts east.
Timing of these elements will be the key as to when
thunderstorms try and develop along the dryline on Tuesday. At
this time, the most likely time frame for thunderstorm
development would be in the evening, mainly for areas along and
east of the I-135/I-35 corridor. If storms do develop in the
evening, the environment would be supportive of severe weather
with discrete supercell mode likely given 0-6km shear
magnitude/vector orientation being more orthogonal to dry line
and other favorable ingredients of CAPE/hodograph shape. We will
continue to watch this period closely. The activity will move
eastward Tuesday night and shift east of Kansas by early
Wednesday morning.

Models continue to show a deep meridional upper trough axis
deepening over the southwestern states for the Wednesday-Saturday
period with a few embedded shortwaves migrating through the trough
axis. This will create a very unsettled weather pattern especially
for the southern plains into the Ohio valley region where a
prolonged period of heavy rain could lead to significant flooding.
The signal by the models for very heavy rain/flooding scenario
has remained quite favorable for those locations given a stalled
out frontal boundary, higher than normal precipitable water
values, and likely training thunderstorms with a prolonged right
entrance region upper jet dynamics all in play. Model trends
show Kansas being northwest of this heavy rainfall setup
location with with glancing bouts of showers/storms Thursday
night-Saturday night. Southeast Kansas would have the better
chance of seeing the most rainfall during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Low clouds will continue to linger through the mid afternoon
hours in the MVFR category across the area, however they should
begin to scatter out with only mid-high level clouds streaming
in overnight. Winds will remain out of the north and on the
light side as surface high pressure builds southward across the
region along with VFR conditions for tonight/Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low for most of the upcoming week
other than Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon`s fire weather risk will be
elevated to the Very High category across central/south central
Kansas due to expected very strong south winds during the day. If
any locations were to reach Extreme fire danger it will be
dependent on how far east the dry line and associated dry air
can spread. At this time, looks like locations west of highway
14 in central Kansas could have some potential for late Tuesday
afternoon where the drier air tries to spread into the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ